A large predatory species can coexist with humans, scientists have announced, summarising the condition of the wolf population in Europe. According to their estimates, there are over 21.5 thousand wolves living on our continent, while a decade ago there were about 12 thousand. This is the result of conservation programs.
'We report that wolves are continuing to make a remarkable comeback across Europe (...) This is a notable conservation success, particularly in a region heavily shaped by human activity, from agriculture to urbanization', write scientists from an international team in their assessment of the situation of wolves ten years after the previous such comprehensive study. The paper was published in the journal PLOS Sustainability and Transformation.
The first authors of the publication are Cecilia di Bernardi and Guillaume Chapron from the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. Among the authors from almost 30 countries are Robert Mysłajek, PhD, a professor at the University of Warsaw, and Sabina Nowak, PhD, a professor at the University of Warsaw.
The authors of the analyses remind us that biodiversity in the world is decreasing - as is the number of large predators. The positive trend concerning wolves in Europe is not very obvious, because our continent itself is not very obvious when it comes to the renewal of predator populations. Wild animals in Europe share space with a large population of people. They live in a strongly transformed landscape, where crops are grown, animals are bred, where hunting takes place, where villages and cities, industry, road and energy infrastructure are developing.
According to the latest calculations, by 2022, at least 21.5 thousand wolves lived in Europe, 19 thousand of them in the EU countries. This is a huge increase; studies published in 2015 mentioned 12 thousand wolves.
In the EU, wolves share territory with millions of wild ungulates, 279 million farm animals and 449 million people.
Wolf populations have increased in most of the countries included in the analysis. They are now present practically everywhere, except for the smallest European and islands. Several countries – Bulgaria, Greece, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and Romania – now have more than a thousand individuals. In Germany alone, the number of wolves increased from just one family group in 2000 to 184 groups and 47 pairs in 2022.
Much fewer, less than 100 individuals, live in Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Hungary, Luxembourg, Norway and the Netherlands – countries that were recolonised by wolves relatively late after a long absence. The only continental countries that wolves have not recolonised are Monaco, San Marino and the Vatican.
In their assessment of individual countries, the authors of the paper report that in the last decade, wolf populations have increased in 19 countries (including Poland). Their numbers remain constant in eight countries (Albania, Croatia, Luxembourg, Norway, Portugal, Romania, Spain and Ukraine), and fluctuate in three (Estonia, Latvia and Serbia). The number of wolves has decreased in three countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and North Macedonia).
In their estimates, the scientists used reports from monitoring and assessments of the population status conducted in 34 countries by government agencies, research institutions, hunters, non-governmental organisations and volunteers. The authorities and the public want to know how many wolves live in the area (and where they are) for various reasons: because wolves are considered a controversial species and prone to conflict with human interests; sometimes because it is an intensively hunted species; sometimes because it is considered sensitive to the consequences of infrastructure development. Wolves are protected in the EU, and the Habitats Directive requires member states to count them every 6 years and report their current status (whether they are endangered as a species, and to what extent).
The scientists emphasize that the presence of wolves often means conflicts between the behaviours and needs of this species and the concerns and needs of humans. In Europe, these conflicts mainly concern the protection of farm animals, competition with hunters for game, and concerns about human encounters with wolves.
The scientists summarise that approx. 19,000 wolves in the EU kill around 56,000 farm animals every year, out of a total population of 279 million. This means that the average wolf in the EU kills three farm animals every year. The risk varies depending on the region. Sheep and goats are most often killed in an encounter with a wolf (two-thirds of losses), although killing cattle, horses, reindeer, and dogs also happens. The largest losses are reported in Croatia, France, Greece, Italy, Norway and Spain, which may be due to the grazing model and a different loss compensation system in these countries.
Another area of potential conflict concerns hunting - an area in which wolves are perceived as competition for hunters. There are also concerns about potential wolf attacks on humans, the authors of the study report. They add that in Europe this happens extremely rarely, and documented cases usually concern wolves whose behaviour has been changed by humans (e.g. individuals fed, intentionally or not, or raised by humans). However, many people fear attacks, and the sensation-seeking media reinforce this fear by reporting on encounters with wolves. For example, reports of attacks on humans in Italy and Greece most likely concerned not wolves, but dogs, the scientists write.
They add that a truly unfavourable phenomenon (that threatens the protection of wolves) is the interbreeding of wolves with dogs or jackals. The evidence of this is currently scarce, but in the future, hybridisation on the wolf-jackal line (the latter population is also clearly increasing) may be a threat to the entire process of wolf population recovery.
The scientists also name the positive consequences of the wolf population recovery. These include, for example, a reduction in damage caused by ungulates in forestry, for example in Poland. Another study recently proved that the return of the wolf could reduce the number of road accidents involving ungulates. Wolves hunting deer and wild boars 'prevent' 2.4 to 7.8 million euros in losses in road accidents (medical costs and vehicle damage) in France. Another upside is the development of wildlife tourism and commercial activities that are directly or indirectly related to the presence of large predators.
The recovery of the wolf population in Europe indicates that a large predatory species can coexist well with humans. The authors of the study mention a similar example of such coexistence, the leopard, which occurs and breeds on the outskirts of large cities and in densely populated areas of India. Wolves in Europe have come back across a wide diversity of land uses, the scientists emphasize.
The fact that wolves are opportunists, which in ecology means a species with a low level of specialization that can live in a variety of habitats and easily adapt to changes (unlike the European lynx or the brown bear, which have not rebounded as strongly), works in their favour. Favourable social, legal and institutional contexts, such as the inclusion of wolves among predators in the EU Habitats Directive, have also contributed to this recovery This shows that, with appropriate policy instruments, land-sharing models can work, even for apex predators, on continental scales, the study authors write.
As controversies escalate, the challenge will be to adapt conservation policies as they transition from saving endangered populations to sustaining success. (PAP)
PAP - Science in Poland
zan/ agt/
