The Committee on the Climate Crisis of the Polish Academy of Sciences is urging that the future European Climate Adaptation Plan (ECAP) adopt the emissions worst-case scenario as a planning baseline, warning that immediate action is needed to adapt to climate change that has already occurred and to limit further warming.
The recommendations were prepared at the request of the Ministry of Climate and Environment to contribute to Poland’s position on the informal Council of the European Parliament’s ENVI Committee.
The experts stress that growing scientific evidence shows the future of civilization is threatened by climate change and ongoing biodiversity loss.
“Unlike the potential consequences of nuclear war, this risk has long been neglected, both in strategic documents and in political practice,” the committee writes. “We are currently at a critical juncture where it is necessary to take simultaneous action to limit the pace of climate change and adapt to those consequences that are no longer avoidable.”
According to the scientists, global temperatures in the last two years have exceeded the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. “In light of record-breaking concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, as well as the rapidly growing surplus in the Earth's energy balance, exceeding the 2 degrees Celsius threshold could occur significantly earlier than the mid-21st century. This means that the rate of global warming is consistent with the trajectory of the worst-case scenario, and ECAP must prepare Europe for this course of events,” the committee said.
Experts caution that relying on more optimistic assumptions could increase the risk of inadequate adaptation and result in greater losses and higher costs. They stress the need for simultaneous mitigation—limiting emissions—and adaptation strategies. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions must be fully integrated into the adaptation plan, they say.
The committee also calls for Europe to accelerate the development of low-emission energy sources, both renewable and nuclear, while respecting nature. “Accelerating the implementation of renewable energy sources and nuclear power is not only a climate imperative but also a strategic response to growing geopolitical instability and energy market volatility,” the document reads.
To support adaptation, the committee recommends developing a general catalogue of measures, including socially and politically difficult steps, such as relocation from high-risk areas. It also emphasises the importance of climate education and countering disinformation.
Blue-green infrastructure, such as retention ponds, rain gardens, green roofs, facades, permeable surfaces, and wetlands, is highlighted as a cost-effective measure that strengthens ecosystem resilience. The committee says such infrastructure should be recognised as critical in EU planning.
Adaptation, the experts say, requires immediate implementation based on reliable data, a stable legal framework, and international cooperation. It also demands societal transformation, including changes in lifestyles, consumption habits, and human relationships with ecosystems.
“According to ecological footprint estimates, to meet current socio-economic needs, humanity annually consumes resources exceeding the Earth's regenerative capacity by a factor of 1.75 (the corresponding figure for Europe is 2.8). In this context, adaptation should go beyond limiting the impact of climate change on human systems, and encompass a significant reduction in human pressure on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, landscapes, and biodiversity. Achieving social acceptance of such an approach—including lifestyle changes—may be one of the greatest challenges of adaptation,” the document says. (PAP)
PAP - Science in Poland
lt/ zan/
tr. RL
