Plant communities across Europe are not adapting quickly enough to climate warming, creating a growing “climatic debt” that could drive faster ecological change in the future, according to a study published in Nature.
The gap reflects a mismatch between current vegetation and the species composition expected under present climate conditions, based on an analysis of more than 6,000 plant surveys conducted across the continent.
The international research, involving Polish scientists, found that although cold-adapted species are declining and heat-tolerant species are expanding, the overall pace of change in plant communities remains slower than rising temperatures.
“This creates a ‘climatic debt’, which is the difference between the current state of vegetation, meaning its species composition, and the state predicted on the basis of present climate conditions' says Bogdan Jaroszewicz from the Białowieża Geobotanical Station at the Faculty of Biology, University of Warsaw.
The findings indicate that vegetation shifts are likely to accelerate as species adjust their geographic ranges, though the rate of change will vary depending on local environmental conditions.
The study compared long-term data from forests, grasslands and mountain summits across Europe, using surveys repeated over periods ranging from several years to decades.
‘The publication was based on analyses of more than six thousand plant surveys carried out at least twice, with intervals ranging from several years to several decades ' Jaroszewicz says.
Researchers identified clear differences between ecosystems. Vegetation on mountain summits is changing about five times faster than in forests and grasslands, in line with higher warming rates at altitude and the limited migration options for cold-adapted species.
In grasslands, changes are mainly driven by the spread of thermophilic species, while in forests both the decline of cold-adapted species and the emergence of heat-tolerant ones contribute to shifts in composition.
‘These observations help us better understand the processes responsible for changes in European nature over the last few decades. They show that each type of environment responds in its own way and that, to explain these differences, it is necessary to take into account more factors than temperature alone, including land management, soil condition, environmental pollution, and changes in the amount and pattern of rainfall’, Jaroszewicz adds.
Scientists from multiple Polish institutions contributed to the research, including the University of Rzeszów, the University of Wrocław, the Wroclaw Medical University, the University of Silesia in Katowice and the Jagiellonian University. (PAP)
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