Space

Expert on ISS ending: Lack of permanent human presence in space is a big step back

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The end of the life of the International Space Station (ISS), which will operate until 2030, is approaching. NASA assumes that private companies will take over the tasks of the ISS. However, according to Jarosław Juszkiewicz from the Planetarium - Silesian Science Park, the lack of permanent human presence in space is a big step back.

The launch of the Ax-4 space mission, featuring Polish astronaut Sławosz Uznański-Wiśniewski, is scheduled for June. The crew will spend two weeks aboard the International Space Station (ISS), conducting, among other things, experiments prepared by Polish scientists.

After more than 25 years, the ISS is approaching the end of its life. It is scheduled to be deorbited in January 2031. Its orbit will be gradually lowered from an altitude of about 400 km and the station will eventually fall into the Pacific. In connection with this, NASA has updated its plans for the station and assumes that by 2030, American private space companies will be sufficiently developed to carry out tasks in low Earth orbit that have so far been performed on the ISS.

According to the spokesperson for the Planetarium - Silesian Science Park, Jarosław Juszkiewicz, the lack of permanent human presence in space will be a big step back.

"When it comes to the amount of technology that has been created during the operation of the International Space Station, solutions related to energy, water purification, a whole host of communication technologies, all biological studies on human behaviour in microgravity - these are invaluable data that we will not collect via machines', says Juszkiewicz, author of the recently published book Kosmos. Wyznaczam nową trasę.

He reminds that the International Space Station is one of the most complex and expensive structures in the history of our civilization (along with the Large Hadron Collider at CERN near Geneva). 'Both of these institutions prove that when we, humans, do not wage war against each other, but instead cooperate for some purpose, we achieve spectacular results', he emphasises.

He also reminds that the ISS was created after the end of the Cold War between the USA and the USSR. 'The conquest of space began with rivalry and ended with such a beautiful symbol', he adds.

When asked why there was no decision to build the ISS 2.0, he replies that 'the conquest of space is still politics'. 'I think that the end of government programmes sponsored by public money has come. We have entered an era of business that is developing incredibly - also in Poland. Elon Musk, even before he became politically involved, showed how much private space tech companies are capable of doing. After all, SpaceX gave us the Starlinks and Falcon 9 rockets, which reduced the price of sending a kilogram of cargo into space a hundredfold', he says.

In his opinion, the commercialisation of space research is a natural course of events. 'And it is not that bad. After all, scientists will still be able to explore space. Although, in fact, we should forget that many space missions will never be profitable, such as unmanned probes exploring planets or those searching for life outside the Solar System', he says.

Continuing the American thread, Jarosław Juszkiewicz admits that the recent declarations of the US president regarding very large cuts in NASA's budget do not inspire optimism. According to the proposal, NASA's budget is to decrease from $24.8 billion in 2025 to $18.8 billion in 2026. The Congress will have the final say.

'On the one hand, Donald Trump announces a flight to Mars, which in my opinion is a pipe dream, because we do not yet have the right technology. On the other hand, projects such as the Gateway space station in orbit around the Moon, bringing samples from Mars, or basic research such as probes or space telescopes, are at risk', he says.

He reminds that after 2030 - when the International Space Station ends its operation and is deorbited - China will be the only country with a a space station in orbit.

Although India and Russia have also announced such plans, these are just declarations for now. 'Jeff Bezos (founder of Amazon and Blue Origin from the space technology sector - ed. PAP) also mentions the construction of space hotels. But I do not know if it is good or bad that the next space stations will be commercial, tourist stations, and scientific research will be conducted somewhat by the way', Juszkiewicz says.

Referring to the Chinese space program, he calls it 'specific'. 'It is often called the Chinese turtle because the Chinese are taking slow, deliberate steps forward, and avoid spectacular, rapid missions, such as the mission to Mars announced by Donald Trump. First they sent a single astronaut, then there was a multi-person flight, now a space station (although in reality it consists of two connected vessels), and recently they brought a sample of lunar soil from the dark side back to Earth, something no one has done before. Slowly but steadily, they are moving forward', the spokesperson says.

When asked whether, with the announced reduction in NASA's budget, the dominant position of the American space agency is threatened, for example, by China, he replies that despite the announced cuts, NASA will still have a huge budget.

The International Space Station was placed in space in 1998 and was later gradually expanded with new modules. The ISS project involves five major space agencies: NASA (USA), Roscosmos (Russia), ESA (Europe), JAXA (Japan) and CSA (Canada).

PAP - Science in Poland, Agnieszka Kliks-Pudlik (PAP)

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