The institute reports that the warming trend is nationwide but uneven. The strongest increases were recorded in the Lake Districts, Subcarpathia and the Carpathians, where temperatures rose by more than 2.4°C.

The weakest warming was observed in the Sudetes, at around 2.1°C. In urban areas, the rate of warming has accelerated in recent decades, with Wrocław warming the fastest at 0.77°C per decade, and Gdańsk the slowest at 0.53°C per decade.

Experts say the scale of warming is already altering atmospheric processes and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events.

“A 2-degree Celsius temperature increase is a radical change for the atmosphere, causing more energy in the system. Therefore, we should expect violent phenomena: droughts, heat waves, and heavy rainfall, causing local and and large-scale flooding,” said Bogdan Chojnicki, PhD, from the Department of Bioclimatology at the Poznań University of Life Sciences.

He added that warmer air increases evaporation and drying of soils and water bodies. “This is the rapid evaporation of water from the soil surface, plants, and the surfaces of lakes and rivers. Furthermore, when dry air from Africa reaches Poland, we see further heat records,” he said.

Chojnicki also pointed to the role of moisture transport from the Mediterranean, which can intensify rainfall extremes. He cited the 2024 Genoa low as an example, saying it carried unusually large amounts of moisture due to elevated sea temperatures.

“In turn, air from the Mediterranean, for example, acts as a ‘conveyor belt’ for water, which rapidly falls, as was the case during the Genoa low in 2024, when flooding occurred in southwestern Poland. The researcher emphasises that the Genoa low is nothing new. ‘However, in 2024, it was 7 percent higher because the temperature of the Mediterranean Sea was high, the air over the Mediterranean ‘sucked’ vapour, and then brought a much larger amount of water than usual,’ he adds.”

The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management notes that droughts are becoming longer, more widespread and more severe, especially in central Poland, including Kujawy, Greater Poland and parts of Masovia. Officials say increasing temperatures, higher water demand and human activity are amplifying natural drought cycles.

The European Environment Agency forecasts that meteorological droughts will become more frequent across Europe between 2041 and 2070, including in Poland.

Researchers also highlight that drought conditions are often difficult to detect because they can develop below the surface soil layer. The climatic water balance — the difference between precipitation and evaporation — is increasingly negative during warm and dry periods, contributing to agricultural losses and water shortages.

In April this year, negative climatic water balance conditions were recorded across nearly the entire country. By early May, agricultural chambers were already calling for local commissions to assess drought damage after crops began failing in drying soils.

Last year, IMWM researchers recorded evaporation exceeding rainfall at all monitored stations between January and October. Even wetter months later in the year were not sufficient to offset accumulated water deficits.

At the same time, Poland has also experienced episodes of extreme rainfall and flooding linked to atmospheric systems such as the Genoa low. In September 2024, such a system triggered severe flooding in southwestern Poland, leading to a state of natural disaster in four voivodeships: Lower Silesia, Opole, Silesia and Lubusz.

Government figures reported that around 2.5 million people were living in affected areas, with 57,000 directly impacted. Nine people died, 6,500 were evacuated, and more than 11,500 buildings were damaged, along with widespread destruction of roads, bridges and rail infrastructure.

Katarzyna Nocuń (PAP)

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